Pretender or Contender?
The first two years of the Brian Kelly era at LSU were quite similar. The Tigers lost to Florida State in the season opener, went 9-3 in the regular season, and defeated a Big Ten opponent in a meaningless January bowl game. Plus, Jayden Daniels was the quarterback of both campaigns.
This season, however, will look different. The Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback is in the NFL, along with fellow first-round picks, receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. Kelly's coaching staff features new coordinators on offense, defense, and special teams. The College Football Playoff has expanded to 12 teams, while the Southeastern Conference now has 16 teams, and legendary coach Nick Saban retired from Alabama.
The constant is Kelly, who came to LSU with a vision—rebuild a championship contender. He's laid a solid foundation in his first two seasons, winning 20 games and revitalizing the program's culture. Now it's time to translate that progress into greater on-field success.
Offense: All Aboard the Nuss Bus
The Tigers' offense is under new leadership this year, with quarterbacks coach Joe Sloan and wide receivers coach Cortez Hankton being promoted to co-offensive coordinators. Their first task is following up one of the greatest offensive performances in school history with a new quarterback.
After waiting three years, redshirt junior Garrett Nussmeier will lead the Tigers under center this fall. More of a pure pocket passer, his style differs from his predecessor, opting to pick apart a defense with his arm rather than his legs. Do not expect Nussmeier to rush for 1,000 yards this season.
Nussmeier's lone collegiate start was in the ReliaQuest Bowl facing Wisconsin last January. Against the Badgers, Nussmeier showcased his acumen under center, throwing for 395 yards and three touchdowns while leading the Tigers on a 98-yard fourth quarter drive to win the game. Mostly in mop-up duty, he's thrown for 1,720 yards, 11 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in his career. In the age of the transfer portal, with college football players able to hop from one program to the next every year, Nussmeier's devotion to LSU is a breath of fresh air. Though unproven, there is lots of excitement surrounding the Tigers' new quarterback this year.
LSU lost its top two wideouts from last season, but there's always talent oozing from the receiver room in Baton Rouge. Kyren Lacy leads a receiving corps that is experienced yet largely unproven in Baton Rouge. Lacy hauled in the third most receiving yards (558) and touchdowns (7) last season, along with 30 receptions. Transfers CJ Daniels (Liberty) and Zavion Thomas (Mississippi State) could make an immediate impact but keep your eye on returning receivers Aaron Anderson and Chris Hilton, the latter of whom has serious big-play ability.
The Tigers were able to move the chains on the ground last season thanks to the legs of Jayden Daniels. This year's rushing attack is all about the running backs. LSU's stable of ball carriers features some savvy veterans and exciting young talent. Entering his sixth season, Josh Williams is the leading returning rusher from 2024, with 284 yards and five touchdowns last season. Fellow sixth year player John Emery Jr. also returns, hoping to finally have that breakout season. Kaleb Williams showed flashes of running nasty last year and could emerge as the bell cow back. Incoming freshman Caden Durham has big upside potential.
LSU's biggest strength on this side of the ball will be the guys in the trenches. The Tigers' offensive line has loads of experience and even more talent, with four returning starters. Juniors Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. are likely the best offensive tackle tandem in the country. This group could go down as one of the best offensive lines in school history.
Defense: Time to Get That Swagger Back
LSU's defense was historically bad last season. For as good as the offense was, the defense was the epitome of ineptitude, ranking as one of the worst total defenses in the country. In three losses, the Tiger defense gave up an average of over 47 points. If the defense had even been average in 2023, LSU would have contended for the national championship.
That's why Brian Kelly overhauled his defensive staff in the offseason. Blake Baker returns to LSU, this time as the defensive coordinator, after leading the Missouri defense the past two years, including an 11-2 record in Columbia last season. He previously served as LSU's linebackers coach in 2021. Baker is joined by several new defensive position coaches, charged with reinvigorating a once fearsome unit.
The centerpiece of LSU's defensive rebuild is linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. An elite pass rusher, Perkins has terrorized opposing offenses the past two seasons, recording 147 tackles, 13 sacks, and a team leading 26 tackles for loss. He'll be joined by linebackers Greg Penn, LSU's second leading tackler from 2023 (89), and Whit Weeks, who led all freshmen in tackles (49) last season.
LSU's defensive line features experience, with senior tackles Jacobian Guillory and Jalen Lee anchoring the middle and defensive ends Sai'vion Jones and Bradyn Swinson on the edge. Sophomore end Da'Shawn Womack is a breakout player candidate. Production, however, was an issue last season, and the run defense was abysmal. Quality depth is also a concern. New defensive line coach Bo Davis has his work cut out for him this year.
For as bad as the run defense was last season, the pass defense was even worse, ranking near the bottom of college football. Was it lack of experience, dearth of talent, or poor coaching? Probably a combination of all three. Safety Major Burns, who led the team in tackles (93), returns, alongside Sage Ryan, sophomore cornerback Ashton Stamps, and transfer safety Jardin Gilbert (Texas A&M). If anyone can help resurrect DBU, it's returning defensive backs coach Corey Raymond, who previously led this unit for over a decade.
Prediction
Nine regular season wins will no longer suffice for Kelly. His program must take the next step toward championship contention in year three. That starts with winning at least 10 games in the regular season. With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams, the difference between nine and 10 regular season wins is more important than ever. In the last five normal regular seasons (not counting 2020), five or more teams finished ranked in the top 12 with two losses.
It's imperative for LSU to win 10 regular season games or more if it hopes to contend for conference and national titles. That task is achievable, but it starts with winning the opener against Southern California in Las Vegas. Win that game, and LSU is likely 5-0 heading into a matchup with Ole Miss in mid-October. Lose that game, and the margin for error becomes razor thin the rest of the season.
This does not feel like a championship year but instead maybe "the year before the year." Heading into year three, Kelly has few excuses to not field a contender. The roster is comprised largely of his recruits, he has a new staff, and the playoff field has expanded. It's time for Kelly and the Tigers to ascend back into the upper echelon of college football.
LSU: 10-3, College Football Playoff First Round
