Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health
Metrics and Evaluations put out a study that predicts the long-term societal
issues that will come along with a global fall in fertility rates. According to BBC, the study
establishes that fertility rates across the world have significantly diminished
since the year 2017, and it predicts an even larger cut in the number of babies
being born by the year 2100. Following this data, the researchers expect the
planet's population to peak at 9.7 billion in 2064, before falling to 8 billion
at the end of the century.
Professor Christopher Murray, a participant researcher of the
study, concluded that "most of the world is transitioning into natural
population decline." The experts claim that the underlying causes behind the
drop in the number of new annual births reported worldwide can be attributed to
an overall increase in women in education and work, as well as an improved
access to birth-control methods. These have led women to choose to have fewer
children. The findings of the study concluded that the most affected countries
will include Japan and Italy, and their populations are expected to decrease by
more than half before the century is over.
A worldwide fall in fertility rates is a problem, because as age
structures shift, there will be more old people than young people. This will
bring about complex social issues, such as a concern for who will pay taxes in
a massively aged world, as well as a preoccupation with who will look after the
elderly. Retirement might also look completely different by the time that the
world's population massively declines.
Some countries have adapted to falling fertility rates by using
migration to boost their population sizes. Although this has been proven
successful, countries will be unable to turn to this strategy once the number
of lives births is decreased on a large global scale. The experts strictly
advice against "undoing the progress in women's education and access to
contraception."
Interestingly, Africa's population is predicted to triple in size
by the end of the century, with Nigeria expected to become the second most
populous country in the globe. Academics at University College London stated
that if these predictions are accurate, there will be a need for an immediate
shift in global politics, as countries may be forced to turn to migration as
the only resource for mitigating the long-lasting effects of reduced fertility
rates.
