Oh, how the mighty have fallen, the tables have turned, etc.
A few months ago, Louisiana looked like ground zero for COVID-19 in the U.S. At
that time, Florida, which appeared to be escaping the brunt of the pandemic,
placed restrictions on Louisianans travelling to their state. Now that
Louisiana appears to be on the mend and Florida's coronavirus cases are going
through the roof, the question arises: Should Louisiana treat Florida in kind?
As the common-sense dictum informs us, an eye for an eye
leaves the whole world blind. If Louisiana does impose mandatory quarantine
periods on Floridians visiting our state, it should, of course, be for public
health reasons and not a concession to mere vindictiveness. Weighing the merits
of immigration-centric containment tactics, it's best to consult the numbers.
The John Hopkins University School of Medicine has an
illustrative coronavirus
tracking tool. It breaks down the case numbers and casualty rates, both at
the national and state levels.
As many likely remember, Louisiana had one of the steepest
infection rates per capita in the world during March and April, before the
number of cases began to taper off to less alarming levels in May. It has often
been hypothesized that Mardi Gras, and the international tourism it inspired,
incited Louisiana's wildly disproportionate figures.
In late March, Florida mandated that Louisianans visiting
the state would have to quarantine for two weeks, unless some compelling reason
brought on their visit, such as commercial, military, or medical. Florida,
along with some other states, had already been restricting air travel from New
Orleans as the epicenter of the pandemic in Louisiana, The Times-Picayune reported several months ago.
Back then, around 10 percent of Floridians being tested for
COVID-19 were testing positive. The number in Louisiana was closer to 20
percent, though it's difficult to generalize these figures because of how
volatile they were—and remain, for that matter. The difficulty here lies with
the public health marksmanship challenge of hitting a moving target at a time
when situations on the ground stay in a constant state of centrifugal motion.
As previously alluded to, Louisiana and Florida have
essentially switched places in a kind of "Freaky Friday" scenario of pandemic
conditions. Of people receiving tests, around 6 percent of Louisianans are
sending back positive results, compared with 16 percent of Floridians.
The comparison here is a far cry from perfect. For instance,
testing has become more widespread, by a long shot, since late March/early
April, the dark early days of the health crisis. Those percentages don't
reflect the overall number of tests but rather fractions of them, so they may
be distortions to some degree. However, testing has become more widely
available in both states and over roughly the same timeframe, so the story the
numbers tell should still be considered compelling, albeit limited.
The other thing Louisianans could do is take their cue from
analogous states. New York is another state like Louisiana, who the coronavirus
hit hard at the beginning, but which has gradually gotten better. Florida
restricted travel from New Yorkers as well as Louisianans. New York has since
responded in kind by requiring quarantine periods for visitors from Florida.
It's difficult to say with any certainty whether such travel
limitations help. There are too many variables to be able to make any claims
about direct causation. This crisis came out of the blue. In the absence of any
silver-bullet solutions, what we have are stop-gap options, Hail Marys, and
Band-Aids, which might staunch the bleeding but can't hope to heal the wound
altogether.
So qualified, though we can't expect that limiting travel
from Florida will save us, it certainly wouldn't hurt to do so. At the risk of
reduction, it seems safe to say that, at this moment, people from Florida are
more likely to have the virus than visitors from other states on average.
Therefore, requiring those among them who do not have some
exigent circumstance requiring them to be here to quarantine for a short while
can only stand to benefit Louisiana, while doing no harm. Placing travel
restrictions on visitors from Florida would be a net positive for our state.
